2019 Stats Review

Here it is. The most anticipated article of the year. Time for some sweeping generalizations on statistically irrelevant data that is mostly just random numbers. Not as bad as randomly picking coins out of your pocket but close.

Before we get to stats, I want to give a shoutout to a couple of our team managers that are creating fantasy football content. I have mentioned the FanPub before. See their content here http://www.thefanpub.com/. We also have a podcast from our new co-owners this year. You can find their content all over by searching Nordic Football Guys. Here is a link to their Spotify. https://open.spotify.com/show/7fHnUXQoguGhCF4dVH5xsk?si=rq4eEAxoRh6Rzb90lBJl7A They are just getting started so give them a listen and a follow.

Commish Picks

Let’s start with the part that everyone is curious about. How well did I do predicting where everyone would finish this year? Actually, pretty good. I had never picked more than 4 teams correctly in any league but this year I predicted more than 4 correct in three of the leagues. In Minor League X, I predicted 9 out of the 12 teams correct. I have no idea how to calculate the probability of doing this, but I am pretty sure it is better than randomly guessing. So next year when you don’t like your prediction, just remember that I may be some small amount better than totally guessing.

Correct Picks

Champions League – 6

Minor League X – 9

Minor League Y – 4

Amateur Hour League – 5

League Stats

Next up in the stats, which league was the best.

Not too surprisingly, the Champions League appears to take the win as the best league. The average score, top score, and tied for the best low score. Surprisingly the Amateur Hour League was fairly equal if not a touch better than Minor League X. Minor League Y had a disappointing year and it had the lowest standard deviation so it was consistently disappointing. That was one thing I predicted wrong at the start of the year.

Draft Location Results

And finally, what is probably the most interesting piece, the finishing order based on draft position. I put it last so that you had to read everything before this and see what a good job I did predicting the final results. There are some really surprising results here.

Results Table: The draft location is across the top of the table. The lower part shows the finishing position for each draft location by league and by year.

First, we can look at 2019. The 2nd and 8th slots were the best drafting locations. The second slot isn’t too surprising because McCaffrey went second in most of the drafts. The 8th and 7th spots are a little more confusing to me. There seemed to be a consensus top 5 RBs this year so these spots were a bit of a wildcard. It is probably where Michael Thomas went in the first round and maybe Dalvin Cook or Nick Chubb came off the board for the second-round pick. And how did the 9th pick then go so wrong? Only one team was outside of the relegation zone and they managed 8th. Maybe they were just getting sniped each time by the 7th and 8th picking players.

The other bad spots were the first selection due to Saquon’s rough year and the 4th selection. The 4th selection was probably a mix of Zeke and David Johnson. Zeke started a bit slow and DJ had a horrible end. I guess it goes to show you can’t win a league in the first round, but you can lose it with a pick that goes wrong.

Historically, we are starting to get enough data after 11 seasons that it is difficult to call some things random. The 4th spot was not just bad this year, but it has been consistently bad. It has also been one of the most coveted spots. Most years there is a top tier of players and the thought it is to grab the end of that top tier, usually around pick 4, and then get the best pick coming back. We may have to rethink this and rethink if the players at the end of the tier should really be there or if they are fools gold. The low standard deviation shows this is a consistent trend as well. Anyone who chooses the 4th spot next year clearly doesn’t read my article.

The 12th spot has also been historically bad, in fact, the worst. I can certainly see how picking on a turn can be more challenging, but it is definitely worse than the 1st pick even after a rough year for the 1st pick. It might be because the end of the first shows a significant decline in quality from the start of the round and then the owner reaches for the next favorite player.

The most consistent pick outside of the 4th pick is the first pick because everyone is getting the same player here for the most part. It makes you sort of wonder how much an owner can influence their team if we see such consistency from one draft pick.

The least consistent is the 6th pick. After the top tier is gone, this owner is looking at their choice on the rest. They may be able to find a diamond or they just get some fool’s gold.

Going off of these results the 2nd draft pick appears to be the best both in average and most championships won. The 3rd, 6th, and 7th locations are the next best. I would recommend the 6th as it has 2 past champions and 6 out of 11 seasons in the top 4. It could all wrong, but it gives the best odds of moving up which is everyone’s goal. If you aren’t picking first, just try to avoid 4, 9, and 12. 11 and 1 are also to be avoided with no championships between them.

Maybe picking draft location in a snake draft is more important than we think. Then again maybe it is making a big deal about random data.